Odds of going Active?

Currently I am an E4 in the Wisconsin National Guard. I am MOSQ'd as an 11b but sitting in a 44b slot do to a statewide re-org and my unit getting disbanded. My current unit has been "alerted" to get deployed sometime around February 2009. I turned in a completed packet to go active duty army this past april. My question is, what are the odds of my packet getting approved at state with the current "alert" status. I have a feeling that the adjuant general will say "You want to go Active? Well we're going to give you a chance to go active in feb." and deny it.